Expert review by Gemma Heathcote.
Sports betting always has two options for the course of an event. Either you win or you don’t. Of course, even a loss can be treated condescendingly and optimistically. But, as a rule, a failed bet is an unfortunate disappointment and a desire “out of sight – out of mind.” No trial, no investigation. And in the head, a swarm of bees are buzzing with possible reasons: bet on the wrong ones, poorly studied statistics, and just «not for me».
What if there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for an “unreasonable” bet? Today we will talk about the “Halo effect”. What is it and why does “it” so often catch bettors and gamblers in the nets?
The Halo effect is best revealed in episodes that each of us has met. Recall the situation when the vacation is about to begin. You are looking for the best location, a comfortable hotel that must meet all quality requirements. Modern design, possibly loft, first coastline, European cuisine. And it seems that here it is, the little tidbit, an attractive hotel that the tour operator quickly sells to you. Online-casino owners would be jealous of this enthusiasm. On arrival, surprises begin: there is hot water only in the morning, and in a European restaurant – only hotel guests. How did this happen? Deception? Not at all, let’s go back.
What information did you get first? A new, well-equipped hotel with comfortable rooms, close to the sea, infrastructure at the right level, European cuisine, but the chef is on vacation, serves Turkish dishes, and there may still be problems with hot water. Having heard a pleasant start in the description of the hotel, we often do not pay attention to the end. And the end is the most important. It’s like the fine print in the contract.
Let’s imagine another picture. You will get the same information, but in a different sequence: the hotel is temporarily without a chef, problems with the heater, but in general it is great, new, and the beds are so soft! We dare to assume that you will not listen about good mattresses and duvets. This is the essence of the Halo effect – the initial positive characteristics immediately win you over. They create a kind of favorable image that overshadows the “minor” troubles.
Yes, someone will definitely pay attention to shortcomings, but our brain is designed in such a way that it gives paramount information more power. As a result: not a very good hotel passed for “excellent”, and only on the spot tourists understand that this is not true. Accordingly, our impression depends on the sequence in which we received the main facts. This is such a cognitive trap.
How can juggling characteristics ruin a bet?
There are several reasons that become a trigger for the Halo effect in bets.
Fourth power – media – dictate their terms
It’s not a secret that the sports industry is very fond of discussing on the pages of the media. Modern media can’t get past sports news. By the way, different publications serve information for users under their own sauce. And most of all – cover only one side of the story. This can be the reason. Let’s have a look at the example.
How often do we read the articles that the team meeting is about to take place? Constantly. As a rule, the media focus on the strengths of one of the opponents. They actively mention past achievements, high-profile victories, and triumph in last year’s world tournament.
What do we see? Anyone who has just begun to get acquainted with bets, subconsciously forms a favorable attitude towards this club. But every team, like a medal, has two sides. But the media didn’t write about the second, more pessimistic one. After the prizes at the tournament was a series of losses in home matches, but why would the user read about it. The trap that many players fall for is to bet on a team that is actively covered in the news. Reminding, that the media could deliver only pleasant information, «forgetting» to tell people about failures. Bettor was sold the wrong image, which he transferred to betting and lost.
Shadows of the past
Each team has its own background. And judging strictly by past victories and successes, bettors can make wrong decisions. This is well seen at the beginning of the season. Beginners bettors create their own ranking, relying on last year’s favorites.
It is a mistake to think that once the club made a powerful result last season, it will be at its best this season as well. There are many factors that influence the success of a team. And the positive history of games last season is in last place.
There was a case when «Monaco» received silver in the championship of France. And the next season he suffered defeat after defeat. Those who bet on this club lost large sums. How? How could a strong team “frame” a bettor like that?
Unfortunately, this happens very often: the leaders of the last season specifically fail in the current one. Why? There are a number of reasons for this: the replacement of a coach, injuries to powerful players or their departure from the club, a change in tactics. That is why the main task before betting is to focus on the analysis of information. Past achievements will remain in the past. The player is only interested in the current state of the team. It doesn’t matter to a good bettor which famous team is playing today. Not “Barcelona” hosts “Tambov”, it’s the first team meets with the second team. No matter how many titles the club has, today it is just an “A” team.
The Halo effect can haunt the bettor not only at the beginning of the season. Players are guided by the standings and bet on teams that are high. However, there was a case when “Napoli”, which was a definite favorite of the tournament, met with “Torino”, an outsider in many meetings. The duel ended in a draw. Bettors, who did not take the rating as the main argument, but followed the matches, understood that “Napoli” was losing ground. Therefore, the result was quite predictable.
The Halo effect can take you down the wrong path, leaving the player without a good bet and a decent win. Therefore, it is extremely important to rely only on your own conclusions and competent analysis.